Somalia on the Brink of War
The interim government and Islamists remain divided despite diplomatic efforts
The speaker for Somalia's interim government went to Mogadishu to try to revive peace talks. He brokered a deal with the Islamists that his own government won't recognize
Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) have been incapable of reaching an agreement regarding peace and it appears they may be unable to avoid war. The UIC claims that the TFG is merely attached to strings controlled by Ethiopian puppeteers. The TFG accuses the UIC of being terrorists. Both sides are ideologically worlds apart but their forces are only separated by kilometers. Yet one man stands between these divided groups and has been seen by analysts as one of the few hopes to finding a solution that will prevent war from breaking out in the Horn of Africa.
Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan is the parliament speaker for the powerless TFG, stationed in the Somali town of Baidoa. Adan has always had good relations with the Islamists and their supporters, which has often been a contentious issue with the TFG's president, Abdullahi Yusuf, as well as the prime minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi. Adan met with the Islamists in Mogadishu on November 10 and brokered a deal to rejuvenate peace talks that have frozen. But the TGF claims that Adan does not possess the authority to deal on behalf of their administration and have rejected the speaker's agreement with the Islamists, referring to it as "non-existent," in the words of TFG Information Minister.
A third round of talks between the two Somali sides, which was led by the Arab League in Sudan, collapsed two weeks ago and since their demise, there has been more military preparations than plans for peace. Security experts estimate that there are between 5,000 to 10,000 Ethiopian troops already stationed inside Somalia, prepared to protect Baidoa from any Islamist attack. The UIC are said to have as many as 2,500 Eritrean soldiers on their side and up to 1,000 foreign jihadis in support of their cause. The UIC has already declared jihad against Ethiopia so Adan's unendorsed mission to Mogadishu comes at a time when action is needed to prevent the otherwise imminent conflict.
Somalia has been apportioned enough disasters without needing a war to add to its miseries. An exodus of refugees has spilled into Kenya, swelling camps and creating food shortages. Fresh rainfall in southern Somalia has caused flooding that has claimed almost 20 lives, while thousands have been forced to flee their homes. In the most grisly accounts of the deluge, crocodiles have reportedly eaten at least two children. In addition to these horrors, floodwaters have devastated agricultural land and property. Somalia's TFG may be wise to reconsider Mr. Adan's efforts to act as a peace broker before it is more than just natural forces that are destroying the country.
