A lack of prospects and concern for Somalia's stability are the reasons refugees cite for leaving their country. But it will be some time before things improve for them.
Economic hardship and insecurity has forced a great many starving Somalis to search for opportunities beyond their own borders. Even though 15 years of anarchy has been quelled by the rise of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), the relative calm has yet to define the order that is required to instill confidence in civil society. The merely ornamental UN-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of President Abdullahi Yusuf has been unable to reach an agreement with the ICU regarding the future of politics in Mogadishu. The peace process suffered a critical setback recently after an assassination attempt on Mr. Yusuf killed 5 members of his convoy and 6 from the group of attackers.
As the political plot thickens in Somalia, the population is slowly thinning out as a steady flow of refugees look for better prospects in neighbouring countries, specifically Kenya and Yemen. According to Reuters, some 300 to 400 Somalis arrive in Kenya each day. Smaller groups are gathering in Puntland in northeast Somalia, as the annual 'people smuggling season' is again underway in the Gulf of Aden. Last year, from September to April, an average of 100 people a day risked their lives to be smuggled into Yemen. Survivors who have made this journey say the boats carried no food or water and the crew beat passengers. Currently, there are more than 88,000 registered refugees in Yemen, 84,000 of whom are Somalis. In Kenya, there are 240,000 as numbers continue to swell inside refugee camps.
There have been chronic food shortages in Somalia and refugees are not finding much better portions in the Kenyan camps. In fact, there is such a scarcity that, unless the World Food Programme receives donations soon, they will have to reduce rations for refugees by November. Malnutrition in the refugee camps is already a persistent problem. Many fear that war could soon erupt in Somalia, pitting the well-equipped ICU and their allies against Ethiopian forces who have vowed to defend the TFG based in Baidoa. Witnesses insist that Ethiopian soldiers are already inside Somalia but Addis Ababa still denies these claims. With almost 5,000 refugees arriving every two weeks into Kenya alone hoping for food and safety, a war could envelop several powers in the Horn of Africa with Somalia at the epicentre and, soon, there may be no safe place for Somalis to flee.